From Layups to Long Bombs? A 20-Year Journey of NBA Scoring Trends (2024)
Undergraduates: Ayla Ajanovic, Enis Sevim, Trevor VanAuken, Arjit Ghatta, Ananya Gode
Faculty Advisor: Jonathan Jensen
Department: Exercise and Sport Science
The National Basketball Association (NBA) has undergone significant changes over the past 77 years, influencing the game's scoring dynamics. This study examines the evolution of scoring in the NBA over the past 20 years, highlighting key changes and influential factors. Analyzing game data from the 2000-01 and 2022-23 seasons with year as a predictor variable, the analysis assessed fluctuations in three-point percentage, two-point percentage, and points per game. Findings reveal a substantial 20-point scoring increase, driven primarily by a statistically significant 3% rise in two-point shooting percentage, while three-point proficiency grew marginally (under 1%). The model identified two-point shooting percentage as the sole significant predictor of scoring outputs. This suggests strategic adjustments and rule modifications have facilitated more efficient two-point scoring, overshadowing modest three-point improvements. These trends provide insights into the NBA's shifting scoring dynamics, informing strategies of coaches, initiatives for player development, and enhancing engagement among fans comprehending the game's evolution.