Does how far you’ve come determine how far you’ll go? An Analysis of Travel Distance within the NCAA Tournament (2023)

Undergraduates: Daniel Horlick, Calleigh Miller, Katie Webb, David Bruss

Faculty Advisor: Jonathan Jensen
Department: Exercise & Sport Science

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This research project utilizes a binary logistic regression model in order to determine the effect of travel distance in the NCAA March Madness tournament. Data from the 2019 and 2022 tournaments was collected and analyzed for closely seeded games (difference of seven or less). The model demonstrated that travel (in miles) has little to no effect on the outcome of the game according to the resulting model while controlling for team quality. This implies that the bracket committee does not need to change the bracket to place higher seeded teams closer to their campus. Our Covid variable, used to see whether travel has a different effect since the pandemic, also yielded non-significant results. Despite these non-significant results of the operationalized variables including distance and COVID, the model correctly predicted 59.1% of game outcomes. Future research could examine the rounds immediately following travel across a wider range of years.

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