Why do Baseball's Top Prospects Endure Failure (2015)

Undergraduate: Douglas Jampol

Faculty Advisor: Robert Cunningham
Department: Economics

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Seventy percent of the best prospects in Major League Baseball will not succeed at the Major League level. Young men are not likely to achieve their potential - from scouting projections- due to failure in player development. The uncertain odds that prospects face result in negative outcomes for highly rated players coming out of college and high school. A player's future may be more or less successful depending upon which organization selects him in the draft. Favorable evaluation of players in scouting, player development, and roster management can push a prospect closer toward the Major Leagues. To properly understand a Minor League player's value, I examine several years of a player's performance, and seek to find a set of distinct statistics that will lead to future success for top prospects.