Political Institutions and Terrorist Campaign Outcomes (2011)

Undergraduate: James Knable

Faculty Advisor: Navin Bapat
Department: Political Science

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Countries across the globe are struggling to combat terrorism. As scholars and policy makers search for information that can help reduce the threat of terrorism, political institutions often emerge as an important part of the explanation of terrorist activity. This study uses the two most common outcomes for terrorist campaigns, negotiation and suppression, to test how political institutions contribute to the development and termination of terrorist campaigns. By employing an empirical analysis of all known terrorist campaigns that occurred between 1968 and 2006, I find that there are two major political regime characteristics which affect terrorist campaign outcomes. Openness of political participation is shown to increase the likelihood of negotiation outcomes in terrorist campaigns. Autonomy of the executive branch of a political system is shown to increase the likelihood of a terrorist campaign termination by means of police or military force. Demonstrating a relationship between certain political characteristics of a government and specific terrorist campaign outcomes is helpful for countering terrorism, especially if governments seek security solutions that are tailored to their particular situation.