Estimating PEM Electrolyzer Costs for Hydrogen Production Through 2050 (2023)

Undergraduate: Peyton Lindogan

Faculty Advisor: Noah Kittner
Department: Environmental Sciences and Engineering (ENVR)

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Hydrogen from water electrolysis will play a key role in the transition to a decarbonized energy system. For green hydrogen to reach production on mass scales, the CAPEX or $/kW cost of hydrogen production, needs to fall by as large as a factor of 6. In this analysis, multiple cost projections were analyzed from academia, industry, and government examples of PEM hydrogen production to determine historical learning rates. PEM electrolyzers were chosen specifically for this study given their emerging cost competitiveness and efficiency improvement potential and industry support when compared to competing hydrogen electrolyzer types. The learning rates are applied to current costs and projected under multiple deployment scenarios with the purpose of predicting hydrogen costs through the year 2050. Out of 45 scenarios, the lower bound scenario is 16.2 magnitudes less CAPEX for PEM electrolyzers in 2050 than the starting scenario CAPEX in 2022. On the other hand, the results of the model find the upper bound scenario for PEM electrolyzer CAPEX in 2050 to be 2.4 magnitudes less than the starting scenario CAPEX in 2022. Regardless of scenario, there is evidence to suggest that the greatest price decreases will take place between 2022 and 2030. For the most aggressive scenarios to become viable possibilities, there will need to be policies supporting hydrogen technologies, not only in terms of research and development, but also deployment for practical use cases.

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