Transnistria: Moldova's Donbas? (2023)

Undergraduate: Siddharth Reddy

Faculty Advisor: Letitia Guran
Department: Romance Studies

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The Russian Federation’s recognition of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic and its subsequent large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 substantially increased international attention to the security of the Ukrainian state and its peripheries. More focus has been given to the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (or Transnistria)—an unrecognized breakaway state which exists on Moldova’s eastern border with Ukraine—due to its history of pro-Russian separatism and the presence of Russian peacekeeping forces on the territory. A series of attacks in Transnistria during late April to early May 2022 has caused speculation that Transnistria might be the next Donbas. After Moldova received European Union candidate status in June 2022, Transnistrian foreign minister Vitaly Ignatyev declared that cooperation with Chisinau was no longer possible and he continued to stress that political integration into the Russian Federation is the Transnistrian government’s goal. However, though the conflicts have many similarities, I argue that Transnistrian separatists are unlikely to commence fighting as the current status quo is favorable for regional elites.

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